Tingull’s Trading Journal

Well, we had a couple of great opportunities today.  The 34ema converged with the POC around 10am this morning, and we plummeted from about 786 to 780.  That was 600 dollars per contract.  This is the kind of trade I am looking for.  While that one trade would’ve been enough for the day, we also have price coming into S1 with the 34ema below it good for 2 points and the resistance which is the 50% retracement that was good for another 2 points.  10 points available on high probability trades on the ER2 today.  That’s 1000 dollars per contract.  Not bad I must say!

Where did it go??

Weekly pivot and POC from yesterday both sitting at 520…notice the quick divergence happening here.

Was at 532, and I totally forgot about news. Usually the market is already forecasting the news. My short would’ve hit my original profit target at 500 for +32, and then it went on another 30 points lower to a little past the low of the day yesterday. All in all, if I had just had the conviction in that trade, it would’ve been a nice 61 point trade to the low of the day.

Next time!  ••note this picture is a day later.  The profile area is on the 2nd picture.

Had a delta divergence, and I didn’t take the first one I saw, so I’m getting in on it now.  Heading into VAL and had a nice divergence setup.  and out for a quick +10 at the weekly pivot.

Nice divergence setup at R2….good for many many points as this thing sunk like a rock.  If I was to have held it down near the lows it’s hitting now…it’s a 100 point gain.  Also…notice the break through VAH, retrace to it, and down to VAL.  Nice 40 point setup there in about 4 minutes.  Yes…4 minutes.

Look at these beautiful entries that I missed…

First trade of 07 was a success!  My charts were running a muck this morning, so I didn’t get a trade in that I really wanted to…but oh well.  Gotta look to the next one.  I was long at 634 with a target at 645.  I think the YM is gonna top out around 650, which is a superimposed range from friday as we opened above value, but within range from the day before.

Got out +11!

Had a nice trade that I totally flaked on cause I was working with my eBay auctions.  See as we hit VAL and right before had a nice divergence….good for a VAL to VAH play.

Playing the IB (first hour of trading) is an interesting concept.  Here’s a look at some trades.  Yesterday, the IB was 36 points large and after 10:30, you would have been safe just fading the extremes of this.  The day before and the day before that we won’t give much credence to because of the lack of volume in the markets.  What is supposed to happen is when you have a smaller IB, there’s a greater chance of the range extension busting through the IB and bringing you higher or lower.  Larger IB will give you extremes to fade.

On 12/21, we had an IB of 33 points, and extended down through the IB in the 3rd half hour and it was rejected, only to fall back through it and go for about 50 points after the break of the initial break of the IB…

On 12/20 we had a 35 point IB and it was a good day to fade the ranges.

On 12/19 we had a 35 point IB and was a good day for range extension.

So…this basically makes me think that there’s not much opportunity so far in my IB exercises…

I’m looking for a slightly bearish bias to the day today. I won’t expect much, as the market is still pretty empty, but looking at the Market Profile from yesterday, we show some selling tails and buying tails, showing price rejection both in the 12550 area and the 12600 area. Value was pretty wide yesterday, with the POC remaining in the lower part of the range. A nice “b” looking profile. I’d look for selling to continue, and a good move would be to fade any move to VAH, in the 590 area.

I’m back from Maine today, and ready for tomorrow’s trading.  Today, was a perfect day.  Here’s 3 trades I would’ve taken:

Short at VAH from 585 to cover at POC at 562 where I’d have flipped that from VB strategy to go long at 562 and cover again at VAH.  Then, we hit the pivot and broke down to just about VAL, where I would’ve longed at 557 until 588.  Total points today from the system…

80 points that were right spot on the money today.  Tomorrow, I’ll be back in the game for real!

Delta divergence at S2, so I went short.  Covered first half at +10, and last half was covered at +1.

WOW!!  What a move down.  TONS of great delta setups, but I missed pretty much all of them as I’m getting ready to fly home tomorrow.  Damn, totally bummed.  check these charts:

off VAL. I took this trade virtually, just because with a market like this, there’s no telling what will happen, and I wanted to take the trade to see how it would work. Sure enough, worked nicely. Took a while, like well over an hour. Good for 23 points (115 per contract), as I covered 525.  Look at this PERFECT delta divergence.  It doesn’t get better than this, and I was at lunch during it.  OUCH!  40 points.

We broke VAL and headed back up to it.  YM didn’t want to stay in value, and it was time to go.  I knew 35 was gonna be a key level.  Battleground.  Ended up getting out at 37, so +9 points on the day so far.  SLOW moving market.  Notice the bright red line…major support that will crack at some point soon…and I’ll there to take it down.

Basically no change from yesterday.  We’re still hitting our head on the 580 level, and not wanting to go there.  Honestly, it feels heavy.  But, I’ll take what the market shows me.

We’ll be looking for a bearish divergence come 570ish, and if we get one, I’ll short in that area.  The area we’re currently printing, 550, is right underneath POC from yesterday, POC from the 18th, and right above POC from the 15th.  Value area is inching higher, with the exception of Tuesdays downward value.  535 will be key to watch, as it’s yesterdays low, as will be the mighty 500.  WE’ve got a naked POC at 508 from the 19th waiting for us, so that could be a potential reversal if we get there.

Notice the divergence as we got to the all time high area…this was screaming SHORT, but I didn’t.  I was still on a high from my first trade.  Then as we approached the support level in the thin red at 549, you can see a divergence had been setting up there as well for about 5 bars prior.  Screaming LONG!  went from 49 to 66 on the dot.  Another 17 points.  All in all, today was a nice trading day, though I didn’t take all that I could have.  69 points available, I took 27.  Not bad, but I can certainly learn to do better.

The book Mastering the Trade has been a life saver for me, and today I saw some videos that John had put up on cbot.com.  An interesting one that he had was where his moving averages were telling him where the next move would be.  He’s got an 8 and 21 EMA and during flat periods, it seems to tell the next direction pretty well.  When the 8 crosses the 21, that’s most likely the direction you’re looking at.  So, in this example, we’d been pretty flat since my first trade, and then we have a divergence in the volume breakdown.  Price is relatively flat right along the midpoint pivot and buying is decreasing.  At this point, JC would put an order to short 3 points below the pivot it’s at.  Notice how the 8EMA crosses the 21 right around that point, and we sell off.  The entry would’ve been at 563 and you’d look to close out at the pivot, or a cross of the EMA’s.  I personally would’ve probably gotten out at 549, netting me 13 points after commissions.  Why there?  You can see the divergence in the delta happening as we’re coming into the support level marked in thin red.  Signal to get out.

This divergence.  I noticed this happening, and this was another factor in my getting out when I did.  Also, a good shorting opportunity.  The YM really notices the 0.5 lines.

Had a nice delta divergence as seen in the chart.  Also happened at VAH and PP…so, nice.

Now, the trade is over.  30 mintues and I am up 27 points!  I got out at 65.   Here’s the final chart

Long the break of POC and made 15 points, and then shorted the break of VAH and closed it just above POC for another 8 points.  All this was virtual, but it worked out nicely. 

But I had my stop too tight.  I shouldve been using my 10 point stop that I normally use, instead of a 6 point one, and I was stopped out, only to see it rise 25 points above my entry.  Hmmmm……disheartening, yes.  But, I learned an important lesson.  Stick with the stops.  There was a shakeout to get my stop out, and it did.  But I could have remained in the trade.  I need to do this from now on.

Didn’t quite work out.  I shorted at 41 as it came up to the PP, finally…and then it went higher through my stop.  I can set my stops pretty tight with that play, because if it’s gonna make the move, it’ll make it fast.  So, I’m down -16 for the day with 2 trades that didn’t work out.  My last play of the day is long at 540, VAL.  We broke through it and are making our move up.  Looking for 567, which is VAH.

Had a friend who shorted YM this morning, and I thought…he’s a smart guy, looks like this could work.  So…I did as well, and it reversed.  I lost 8 points.  That didn’t coincide with ANY of my signals.  See where it got me?  Won’t do that again!

I’m recalling an interesting portion of John Carter’s Mastering the Trade, where he talks about fading the pivot point. He said 90% of the time price goes there, and about that same percentage price will reverse there. What I’ve found looking at my end of day charts on the YM, is that about 95% of the time (of the charts I’ve been able to capture) price goes to the pivot, and about 80% of the time price reverses for at least 20 points, sometimes as much as 60 points on nice days. Hmmmm….Today, too! If I had my pivots working correctly I would’ve been privy to that info.

Very, very interesting. That could in fact be a single play. Just wait for that to show up, and fade it. If I get stopped out, then I get stopped…you don’t have to have the stop in place very loose. Then when I win, I’d win nicely. I’ve asked a friend to backtest this to see what he can come up with. It’s a very interesting thing to me for sure.

Here’s is how I’ll lay out my play.  First, while I’m testing it using one contract, I’ll get out at R0.5 or S0.5.  When I add more contracts, I’ll look to get out my first batch at R/S0.5 and then move my stop to that point and ride until R/S1.   At that point, I can evaluate.  With just 2 contracts, I’ll get out there.  With 3, I’ll see if it’s got more umph.  If not, I’ll get out.  Methodical. That’s how it’s gonna be done.  Methodical!

How perfect did this look?  I was eating lunch when this one showed its head.  Nice 20 point trade from the pivot point, and a delta divergence coming into it.  Notice the selling gets less and less heading into the pivot…

Investor R/T is a great platform for the most part.  On the Mac, they don’t really seem to care as much as they do for their PC versions.  I’ve been having some real issues with it.  For instance, I need to download 10 days of daily data for my intra-day pivots to show up correctly.  Why??  Can’t it just use what’s there for yesterday like all other platforms???

Guess not!!!!

and retraced, and I shorted a retracement. Plus, ER2 is weak, and that’s been leading all day so far, so I’ll take my cue. Short at 28, again, 6 points late, but this happened just as I got in from cooking lunch. Looks like we might fill the gap from friday now. My target is at 510 and my stop at 536. Gonna let this one roll. ER2 is VERY weak right now.

••update•• as weak as the Er2 is…it’s not enough to hold the mighty dow back I guess…we went right through to my stop.  So… -8 points on that one…down 12 on the day. 15 if you count my commissions….not a good way to start the week.

Seems like my setups are working nicely on ER2 as well.  This is definitely a scalpers paradise, the ER2 is.  When a signal came my way, I could’ve been out with a point in 3 minutes, and 2 points in 4 minutes.  See the break of the trendline after the extreme reading…

Delta divergence long a little late on VAH pivot.

Out -5 - fakeout

Had some overhead above us from the new high we just made, and we didn’t want to take it there.  I got out as ER2 started breaking down BIG time.  Looking to short now…market is drifting down.

WOW!  Today there was 96 ticks available for the taking.  Now, I’m not ready to trade this bronco, but wow…incredible.  look at all the VB divergences as we approached VAH…impressive!!!

What I’m thinking…is that I need to watch YM, ER2 and ES to see what is going to be near MP levels.  today, YM never even came close to VAH.

Albeit just a virtual trade, but still it was one given off by the system and I went short at 543 and had it set to cover at +11, and it did.  It ended up going over 20 points my way, but I wasnt gonna be around, so 11 points was good enough.  Here’s the chart:

it may have taken over an hour….but my profit target was just about reached, and I would’ve called it quits at 72, +11.

Got my signal, and I’m long. Gotta take my signals as they come along, plus we broke out of a range. Right now it’s kinda looking like it might be a fakeout, but we’ll see. I’ve got my stop in place at 51 and target of 79, which is R0.5.

So, this environment sucks.  I got out at -6 points.  Here’s the chart of what went down:

Come at 475…and we traded right down to 465 after that. Nice little run. Didn’t take it, as I was done for the day with my 20 points.

Here’s a chart showing some of my strategies FINALLY working again…it’s nice to have it back in business.

Notice how one of them showed me to get in right at POC….right where I wanted to get in originally.

Broke VAH to the upside and went long at 437.  Covered at 457, +20 points.  Where I would have liked to get in was a retracement to the POC, which was at 422.  I wasn’t really paying attention, though… We’re currently trading 481.  Still on just one contract, but getting better with my execution and my mental stability during the trade.

broke through VAH and retraced, and my signals all said go, so I went.  Albeit a little late (shouldve been in around 423) but got it down to the POC at 409 and took 11 points.

didn’t work out.  Stopped out.

Lost a lot today.  Im done for a while.

Damnit, this was my second impulse trade, and it worked way against me.  -16 points on the trade.  It moved so fast I couldn’t get an edge in on it.  ARG!!!!!  Sooo mad, so, -9 points on the day.  How frustrating!!  I do have a long setup starting, so we’ll see where it takes me.

••triggered•• long at 418

Morning has been wicked slow…I mean…wicked. We do get some trends showing, and I just shorted on a retracement to a downtrend line. Nice risk/reward trade. Shorted at 407.

••update•• Got out at 400, which was the trendline bottom.   Might re-short again at the top, which would be around 405…we’ll see how it looks.

Well, I had a decent day, pulling away 7 points.  I’ll take it, though, as it’s not a -7, it’s a +7.  Tomorrow, Fed Day, oughtta be better.  I’m turning a new leaf this week and am going to take all the trades that present themselves favorably to me.  I’m excited, prepared and ready to take action!!!

Usually, however, while I was eating take a look at what popped up!  2 beautiful trades for over 11 points a piece.

This came back as not only a retracement to a trendline, but also a long signal.  There was just NO movement.  Went from 332-338 for 10 minutes.  Nothing doing there.

+5 so far…gotta do better than that today.

Everything was picking up quite nicely and we got some real buying happening.  I got in on my signal, and pulled 8 points off of it.  It did end up going for 20 points above my entry, I just told myself I’d get out at R1, where it danced a for a little, and then popped up for a quick 10 points.

12478 - High from 11/20 (all time high)

12398 - POC

12420 - VAH

12372 - VAL

We’ve got a 48 point value area.  Not huge, but not bad.  Right now we’re printing 416, right inside of value, above POC.  With a break above value, we’ll I’ll look to buy the retracement back to it.

Had a good looking short setup and took it. My stop is wide, above the POC. Plus, I had Renee here to tell me to do it. So far, it’s been hovering for the past 15 minutes. Up to POC and down to PP, up to POC, down to PP. This is just a 10 point swing, but nervewracking. Renee’s trying to get me to understand and embrace risk a little more. It’s very tough feeling like I’m under the gun in a sense to make some money. All I’m trying to do right now is pay our mortgage, and I’ll be all set.
I’ve had PLENTY of opportunities to do that today, but took none of them. Why? I have a fear of losing. How can I get over that fear? Understanding the market will do whatever it wants, but my edge gives me a higher probability of it going in my direction. So far, my edge hasn’t worked all too well in the seemingly trendless and choppy market we’ve been in as of late. We are continually making lower highs on the YM, and I feel a little bit of confidence in my position. I just need to see something work. I was in a long that if I had a stop as wide as I’ve got right now, I would’ve made 50+ points on that trade. My target on this trade is S.5 which is at 368. It’ll be just about a 30 point trade and I’m risking 14 points to find out if it’s going to work or not.

••update•• well, the trendline was broken and as it moved it started reducing my risk, which was nice.  I was eventually stopped out.  -8 points.  On the day, -10 points.  Another losing day for Chris as this market tried to figure out what to do.

On retracenment to trendline and POC.  Things were looking GREAT.  Really looked like we were headed for R1 at 439, but got the 33 mark at headed back down, broke the trendline and I was out at 17 for +3.  Yay….Will look for a lower high to short.  Very volatile market.

Still, just choppy.  Its a rediculous market.  My strategy works like crap in this kind of market, and the other strategy I use for choppy markets, I get scared out of using because the maret is so choppy!  It would have yeilded over 100 points today if I had used it, too.  Sooo mad at myself for that.

60 points worth I missed cause I was scared into taking it.  60 points!!!  The delta had a lower high as we were heading into the pivot point, and then BAM!

Shorted at 369 on a pretty good setup…not the best, but decent.  It was right at S2, so I thought we would break it with the selling coming on.  We did break it, and went down to 261, and then reversed.  We hung out at 69 for a few minutes and then popped up through my stop.  I actually got a little better fill on my stop which was nice.  So I only lost 3 points.

All in all, I made 4 points today but gave 3 to my broker for commissions….so, enough for a latte.

But still made away with 5 points.  This market is slow as heck, so I’ll take the crumbs.  I should have gotten in at 484, but with things moving so slowly, I was scared to get in.  I got in at 77 and got out at 72, right around S2.  +7 points on the day

Rollover day.  Tough trading day.  We are getting somewhat of a trend, though, and it’s nice.  I had a nice short signal come through at 425.  BUT, I was typing in the chatroom about my hesitation issues and missed it.  Ironic, eh?

On days like today, I need to really just concentrate on Market Profile levels. There were some sweet trades to be made (James at Traderslab made about 35 points today!) and I didn’t make a dime cause I don’t like to trade in this. It was perfect going from VAL to VAH and back down….lots of opportunities that I missed. New things learned. Hopefully we’ll have some trendiness tomorrow. Today’s range was one of the smallest in the whole year. 42 points wide. insanely slow. Volume was just TEENY! Didn’t even hit 100k contracts on the day. This was action we saw 2 weeks ago before Thanksgiving…

Good for laundry.  Not even going to try and trade this.  I’ll get my ass handed to me.

One interesting thing to notice, though…I had 2 extreme readings.  They signaled reversals in and of themselves.  39 point range today…very very small so far.

but I was sleeping.  Was good for 15 points.  Overall, not an exciting day at all.

Is how the YM is just hugging the backside of that uptrend line it had been on for a few months…doesn’t want to give up on it yet…though take a look at the volume.  As of this pic, it’s 2 hours left in trading.  No way will we hit volume larger than yesterday…and especially not larger than 2 days ago.  Moving up on such lighter volume….not a good sign for the bulls!

It seems as though days like today the opposite signal would work.  Instead of drawing a trendline and waiting for to cross back down or back up through…if I draw the trendline as it’s diverging against the price, and wait for it to pop negative or positive and take that trade, that would work perfectly.  I’ll need to study whats different about days like today.  It’s not a trendy day, that’s for sure….

Market is so indecisive I’m just gonna write some levels I’d take a trade, but not really take it cause chances are it won’t work today. The market is really in balance, and there’s no places to take advantage of it being out of balance. Not a good type of day for this strategy…

short at 328 and its’ already not moving like I’d expect it to. Just hanging out. It’s also right at VAH….

••update••

Out for +10. Days like today I’d take the crumbs I’m given.

Got my short signal at 310.  This is a VERY choppy mixed bag market today.  Shortly after I was filled, it went down 6 points and then quickly reversed.  I’m done for the day, this market can’t be trusted right now.

But faked out. Stopped at -6 points. We were at VAH and hanging out there, got my signal and got in….then WHAM! Stopped. The market is really indecisive today, so I need to take a break for a little. It’s probably digesting yesterdays move up…

••update••

Looking at that after the fact, you can see there was an extreme sell reading, invalidating that long setup I was looking for.  I need to keep my mind open to receive ALL of the information that the market tells me.

Not feeling comfortable taking trades right before big numbers like the ISM…so I didn’t take it.  HOWEVER, it would have worked for a nice 11 point gain.  A short opportunity at 304, and went right through an 11 point target to a total of 15 points down from my entry.  My 5 point stop would’ve come close to hitting….but it would’ve gone only 4 points opposite my would have been trade.

The system triggered it again…another 20 point trade.  so all in all, the system triggered 6 trades today, 4 were valid and 2 lost money.  Losers would’ve been 10 points lost total, and gainers would have been 100ish points.  Intense stuff.  Here’s the last trade for the day…made it down to R1 just now at 296.  26 point trade!
Notice how you should take short signal until the delta goes red…same with the longs, don’t take the long until you see green.

Got in on my signal, stop at -5 points, and BAM, there we go.  Long at 301 and covered at 318 when things slowed down.  See the yellow circle as it crossed my trendline.  Nice and quick…about 10 minutes, and that trade yielded a nice profit.

Got one to short at 81 and the exit showed its head at 69. 12 points….in the market today, thats good. The long signal at 69 was kind of slow, but never dipped below. I’d look to get 11-12 points per trade out of this market right now, and I’d be out at 80. Took about 5 minutes or so…

••update on that second trade••

Its now trading at 295.  That’s almost 30 points…This system is rockin it.

Great book for building houses, but also a great book for life.  Patters occur everywhere….one that I’m noticing now is a further refinement to my volume breakdown setup.  Here’s how it is:

When a short setup is starting to form, the next higher low MUST be below 0.

When a long setup is starting to form, the next lower high MUST be above 0.

All of the false signals I’ve seen have that in common.  The stretch of the delta line is sooo exaggerated, and the signal fails.  So…I’ll be on the lookout.

We were heading up and I had a signal from my software to give it a go!  So…I did…and every once in a while I get a false signal.  It’s happened 3 times out of about 18 or so.  So..it’s not often.  I am noticing, however, that if the price doesn’t go in my direction right afer my entry, the chances of it doing so are slim.  So…I could set stops a lot closer.  it’s been giving me a safe entry on two plays that were possible so far today, that I didn’t take, and that were good for 30 points each.  Awesome that I didn’t take them, right?  yayyyyy…….

Today my system is 50/50.  I think what I can do is take the signals, set my stop for 5 points and if it’s not gonna work, I know it’s not going to.  It always takes off right after I get my signal.  So….that can save me some coinage.

Looks like we’ll be opening right around VAH (12218) and we’ll see what happens at the open.  If we’re quicly brought back down into value, it’ll probably be a chop around day.  However, if we break out of value, I’ll look to go long the retracement to VAH as long as my VB indicator is also agreeing.  The Volume Breakdown indicator is basically my “tape”.
It’s telling me the delta (difference) of the contracts hit at the bid versus the ask.  This is the number of people who are itching to get into the market, or out of it.  A very nice tool to have.

Our levels we’ll be watching are:

12218 (VAH)

12201 (Pivot Point)

12165 (POC and S.05)

12144 (VAL)

at 12129 we have S1 and R1 resides up at 12248.  If we break value, and I long the retracement to VAH, I’ll be looking to book profits at 248.  I should be able to have a nice 25 point run on that trade.